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Allocation of exceptional talents

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Newcastle U FC (Rolf Bergström) 5 May 2020, 16:53
Hello.

I want to follow up on my March posting as I feel that the current situation is immensely unsatisfying and I challenge the received logic that exceptional talents are fairly distributed across the game, or indeed even purely randomly, as each day you see in the auctions literally dozens of players who have been training at the top end but for many players, myself included, such players seem rarer than real football matches or honest politicians.

As I said in March, for about 6 years I always create the maximum 5 new youths a week and supplement these with signing up about 3-5 previously untrained 15 year olds through my talent scouts looking to see who is out there. That is let's say 8 new 15-year old untrained players a week for 6 years which is 2496 players in total. Of these 2496 only 2 (the last of which was 4 years ago) have ever turned out to be exceptional (=training at the upper end of whatever was possible for the level of training ground I had at the time).

In other words, I have a 'hit rate' of 1 great player discovered for every 1,248 new 15-year olds trained, or one every 3 years, or if you prefer, a chance of 0.0008%. I call this out as nonsense given the amount of such players in the auction house, something clearly seems amiss.

1.
I invite other players to respond with the hit-ratios they have experienced. How typical I wonder is 0.0008%?

2.
I also invite Dennis to say more about the algorithm being used to allocate such players and whether it is purely random or if some additional factors are employed to distribute which clubs are awarded with discovering such players. Let's have some transparency please.

3.
I once again strongly suggest that something as seemingly unfair as this is very much overdue being addressed, with the programming altered so that clubs can expect a better than a 0.0008% chance of discovering such a player. In my March message I floated a suggestion that for example if a team has created say x number of talents without finding a great talent, then the next talent they create should be one, which would be a hell of a lot fairer than the 0.0008% lottery (even if x is 200 or 400!)

Thank you for your time and for your responses, I hope you support my petition.

And finally (Grant this is just for you), I would prefer not to have my comments summarily dismissed and to be branded as just "an unlucky whinger". Some respect please. I am serious about this, I am not just having a moan.

Rolf Bergström

Newcastle U FC wrote:

1.
I invite other players to respond with the hit-ratios they have experienced. How typical I wonder is 0.0008%?
I also have a very low 'hit-ratio', I just got one promising from my club and another one found from my scout and 2 others close to but I didn't sign for some reason but they appear in my scouts reports as untrained so maybe someone else snatched them before I saw the scout reports.
Also promoted all the 5 youths and for periods of time I had between 1 and 4 untrained discovered by my scouts. I'll let you do the math but seems I'm not that far away.
Newcastle U FC wrote:
2.
I also invite Dennis to say more about the algorithm being used to allocate such players and whether it is purely random or if some additional factors are employed to distribute which clubs are awarded with discovering such players. Let's have some transparency please.
I saw a 27M 15yo sold by a 2 weeks club, so don't think life in the game has any relevance. But I do agree it sucks that I've spend 6 months of 4h trading/day to get at the same point as someone who got a lucky youth in their first/second week. Should be something like restricted talents for under 1 year managers and guaranteed 1 promising a year after the first year.
Newcastle U FC wrote:
3.
I once again strongly suggest that something as seemingly unfair as this is very much overdue being addressed, with the programming altered so that clubs can expect a better than a 0.0008% chance of discovering such a player. In my March message I floated a suggestion that for example if a team has created say x number of talents without finding a great talent, then the next talent they create should be one, which would be a hell of a lot fairer than the 0.0008% lottery (even if x is 200 or 400!)
Yeah that would work too but it would't compensate for the fact that having a youth in the beginning gives a very unfair advantage to a team if the second team gets it after 1+year.
Also think the VIFA rank and training facilities should be taken into account as in real life best teams with the best reputation and facilities manage to recruit the best teams on the larger majority of cases ( Messi at Barcelona for example: Born and raised in central Argentina, Messi relocated to Spain to join Barcelona at age 13>>well before 15yo)

SuDoku AFC (Howard Garns) Crew 5 May 2020, 19:48
If you've had two in that period then you are lucky.
I've been pllayiing this game nearly 7yrs and have only ever had one.
> and he was Very recent!
Many managers never have even one during their whole VM career smiley

In answer to your direct question, - I firmly believe that the "allocation" of these Superyouths is!
- totally random.

CoventryAllStars (Simon Lippitt ) 5 May 2020, 19:55
SuDoku AFC wrote:
If you've had two in that period then you are lucky.
I've been pllayiing this game nearly 7yrs and have only ever had one.
> and he was Very recent!
Many managers never have even one during their whole VM career smiley

In answer to your direct question, - I firmly believe that the "allocation" of these Superyouths is!
- totally random.
ive had one..
11/6/14 got my first super youth...
as you can see many many years ago.... but have a good start to one this week though, fingers crossed lol

mine went for 44.5 million,

Newcastle United FC (James) 5 May 2020, 20:00
I can't remember the highest i've sold a youth for, the ones I can remember I think have been a maximum of 20 million(2 of them who were not my creations, also before the scouts having to find the untrained youths).
I do feel I have bad luck with hitting the lottery with a 'superyouth'. The closest I can recall was recently after hitting WCTF, I got a youth who when I scouted my own team, came back as enormous potential, his first 5 trains however, did no where near reflect that said potential. I needed the money so I chose to sell after those 5 trains, getting 7.5m, his next 5-10 trains so him swapping clubs for higher and higher fees, if I remember correctly went for 45m at its highest.
I must add that I feel I get more of the mediocre/decent youths more frequently than I see other teams, so that helps boost the bank balance a little.

meanwhile in Spain, two in the same day for a team smiley


seems 05-03, 23:50 and 23:51 was the lucky date and time for creating youths, doesn't seem that random to me:
05-03, 23:50 Signed on a free transfer by FC Vestersager.
05-03, 23:51 Signed on a free transfer by FC Vestersager.


Newcastle U FC (Rolf Bergström) 20 May 2020, 13:38
I still wait for an official response to my message.

I appreciate that Sunnyvale is a very busy man, but I would request that he (or someone who knows the answers) does address the questions that I raised several weeks ago (and indeed in March), about how exceptional 15 year olds are fed into the game. I think it is a very important point and requires some transparency - we (as players) would be grateful for some answers, thank you.

Rolf (also known as Mr 0.0008%)

South Africa (Aaron) 20 May 2020, 13:49
Do you not think it's purely random? The amount of youths created is so high of course you will struggle to get a super youth.

Some teams get 2 in quick succession and some don't get one at all, hence it being random.

I'd rather have an answer and response as to why training levels are so sporadic to be honest.

Loyals (Loyals) Crew 20 May 2020, 14:05
South Africa wrote:
I'd rather have an answer and response as to why training levels are so sporadic to be honest.
This one is "easy".

The hidden potential consitutes a specific training level. For the sake of argument I'll let the standard trianing for a 30/30 potential player be 200 xp for this explaination. (Ok - Honestly I dont know for a fact that the xp initially is the same each day, but it makes sense with all coming afterwards)

Negative factors:
- Injuries
- Energi (I dont know if there is a treshold for when the negative effect hits, like stadiums from 80%)
- Intensity of training session(Negative if relaxed)

Positive factors:
- Trainer (I've never seen anything disclosed about how big of an effect the trainer gives)
- Intensity of training session(Positive if intensive or more)(Intensity factor can be deducted)

Randomization factors:
- Team-factor (For each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.8 and 1.2)
- Player-factor (For each player at each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.8 and 1.2)
- Skill-factor (For each skill for each player at each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.7 and 1.3)

So as an example. The player in question with a base of 200xp wil be subject to interval-training at "extreme" it would look something like this: 200xp x 120%(extreme) = 240xp
Split into 3 skills the base would be 80xp.

Acceleration: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)
Speed: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)
Stamina: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)

The team factor is the same for each session for all players. The player factor is the same for all skills for each player at each session. The skill factor is different from each skill for each player at every session. (And the trainer, once again, I've never been finding the actual effect from a trainer)

If you're still uncertain about how it works - Let me know smiley
South Africa wrote:
Do you not think it's purely random? The amount of youths created is so high of course you will struggle to get a super youth.

Some teams get 2 in quick succession and some don't get one at all, hence it being random.
I've never been told explicitly that it's completely random, but it is my perception. I even came up with the algorithm for the current distribution based on the issues Sunnyvale was considering back then.

But for the distribution, see: https://www.virtualmanager.com/blog/895-rebalance-potential-distribution

Anyhow - It is important to distingise between "super youths" and just "talents". I have an idea that people might be underrating their good youths, and overrrating other peoples youths making it extra scewed in perception - I dont know this tho.

For myself, I believe I have had enough good talents - Most of them actually not picked by me, but found with scout and before that on free transfers.

Loyals wrote:
South Africa wrote:
I'd rather have an answer and response as to why training levels are so sporadic to be honest.
This one is "easy".

The hidden potential consitutes a specific training level. For the sake of argument I'll let the standard trianing for a 30/30 potential player be 200 xp for this explaination. (Ok - Honestly I dont know for a fact that the xp initially is the same each day, but it makes sense with all coming afterwards)

Negative factors:
- Injuries
- Energi (I dont know if there is a treshold for when the negative effect hits, like stadiums from 80%)
- Intensity of training session(Negative if relaxed)

Positive factors:
- Trainer (I've never seen anything disclosed about how big of an effect the trainer gives)
- Intensity of training session(Positive if intensive or more)(Intensity factor can be deducted)

Randomization factors:
- Team-factor (For each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.8 and 1.2)
- Player-factor (For each player at each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.8 and 1.2)
- Skill-factor (For each skill for each player at each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.7 and 1.3)

So as an example. The player in question with a base of 200xp wil be subject to interval-training at "extreme" it would look something like this: 200xp x 120%(extreme) = 240xp
Split into 3 skills the base would be 80xp.

Acceleration: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)
Speed: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)
Stamina: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)

The team factor is the same for each session for all players. The player factor is the same for all skills for each player at each session. The skill factor is different from each skill for each player at every session. (And the trainer, once again, I've never been finding the actual effect from a trainer)

If you're still uncertain about how it works - Let me know smiley
South Africa wrote:
Do you not think it's purely random? The amount of youths created is so high of course you will struggle to get a super youth.

Some teams get 2 in quick succession and some don't get one at all, hence it being random.
I've never been told explicitly that it's completely random, but it is my perception. I even came up with the algorithm for the current distribution based on the issues Sunnyvale was considering back then.

But for the distribution, see: https://www.virtualmanager.com/blog/895-rebalance-potential-distribution

Anyhow - It is important to distingise between "super youths" and just "talents". I have an idea that people might be underrating their good youths, and overrrating other peoples youths making it extra scewed in perception - I dont know this tho.

For myself, I believe I have had enough good talents - Most of them actually not picked by me, but found with scout and before that on free transfers.
Great info thanks!

For trainer there were no definite values but the estimation is that he gives a flat increase around 15 points (depending on his skills, but there is little info except that under 18 he's pretty much useless) if not mistaken, and the energy penalty is for any percentage under 100% thia ia why the recommandation is to train as soon as possible after the energy update if you value training over match performance. But tbh i didn't notice any differences in trainings between 90% and 100% energy.

As for the youths, for me any promising or high reasonable potential player is counted as supe youth. Talents are low reasonable to high below average potential as shown in scout reports (after the minimum 12 trainings for 15yo).
Other people might consider super youth starting at formidable but I'm not there yet, and as far as transfer price ia over 2.5-3M I'd say that counts as it advances considerably the time to upgrade yo WCTF over the long term as a compounding effect.
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