Match simulation broken?

I'm trying to understand the logic behind the match simulaitons here. Its years since I've played, so my question is probably more regarding knowledge sharing.

How should one interpret the match simulations?

This season, my team performs horrible, dispite meeting teams where my team seems to be clearly superior, but I still lose most matches.

Here's one for example: https://www.virtualmanager.com/new_matches/103458367

Looking at that game, is there something that makes it obvious that I should lose that game?

Like .. is 4 midfielders preferable, does Away games dramatically increase difficulty or something 3rd?

Appreciate it!

Hey

I believe home teams have a slight advantage. Im using the google addon VMenhancer which says that you have 45% chance to win this game. Opponent has 30%. rest is chances for a draw.

I think there is a lot of variance involved. I have a weaker squad this season than I did last and im only 6 points off my total points with 13 games to go.

Thanks for the replies!

Yeah, seems like there's nothing else to do than stay patient over a few seasons.

I have a way stronger team this season, but do play some odd positions sometimes (FL on FC/above MO), but would be crazy if that did it.

At least I'm down going down in the weaker leagues.

From what ive read if you play players out of there positions fl in a fc role then the abilities lower. So say if your players 50s it takes a certain percent of so might go to 45s etc

If you play players in yellow or red positions they get a heavy punishment which can also explain it. So i would switch out the players so all plays in green field

In the example game SV Baar gave, only one player seemed to be slightly out of position. However, the teams are fairly balanced so a 3-1 home win doesn't look outrageous.

Bit surprised the wide formation worked so well though. Never got it to work myself.