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Allocation of exceptional talents

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Low Achievers (Aaron) 20 May 2020, 14:24
I'd by lying if I said I understood what you just put but thanks a lot for taking the time to reply with that, I will go over it again when I'm not half asleep. I guess I just need to realise training will sometimes will be bad and then sometimes good and then sometimes really, really bad. The fluctuation just kills me and my effort for this game, especially when all I am now is a team that needs to train it's players HARD. smiley

Loyals (VMEnhancer) 20 May 2020, 14:35
FC Viitorul Constanta wrote:
Great info thanks!

For trainer there were no definite values but the estimation is that he gives a flat increase around 15 points (depending on his skills, but there is little info except that under 18 he's pretty much useless) if not mistaken, and the energy penalty is for any percentage under 100% thia ia why the recommandation is to train as soon as possible after the energy update if you value training over match performance. But tbh i didn't notice any differences in trainings between 90% and 100% energy.
What estimation says about 15-point for the trainer? The training tables from Danmark? (https://www.virtualmanager.com/forums/topics/1114572-potentiale-skema-og-tabel)

I dont believe this is the truth, but I have no better information in this regard.

As said, I dont know if there is a treshold, but it seems impossible to deduct due to all the randomization effects.
FC Viitorul Constanta wrote:
As for the youths, for me any promising or high reasonable potential player is counted as supe youth. Talents are low reasonable to high below average potential as shown in scout reports (after the minimum 12 trainings for 15yo).
Other people might consider super youth starting at formidable but I'm not there yet, and as far as transfer price ia over 2.5-3M I'd say that counts as it advances considerably the time to upgrade yo WCTF over the long term as a compounding effect.
To me they doesn't constitute as super youths till PP ~33-35 - Probably formidable. Price is a bad way to decide in my opinion, as prices fluctuates.

Final Whistle (join) 20 May 2020, 14:47
Yes but the prices are based on demand and excepting specifit cases as the release of youth teams the demand is based on the number if active managers.
Also the price is relevant because there will be exceptions but the general rule will be more managers higher the prices. So its an auto adjusting benchmark if you will. A while ago the prommising could be found at 3M not they're 5-7M or more.
Reasonable were maybe 500-1,5M, now they're 2-4M.
But selling players for 5M gets you enough for STF, 10M to LTF and 25M to ETF. So selling x reasonable or y promising players doesn't matter the effect is the same,you get to upgrade TFs.

Loyals (VMEnhancer) 20 May 2020, 15:42
FC Viitorul Constanta wrote:
Yes but the prices are based on demand and excepting specifit cases as the release of youth teams the demand is based on the number if active managers.
Also the price is relevant because there will be exceptions but the general rule will be more managers higher the prices. So its an auto adjusting benchmark if you will. A while ago the prommising could be found at 3M not they're 5-7M or more.
Reasonable were maybe 500-1,5M, now they're 2-4M.
But selling players for 5M gets you enough for STF, 10M to LTF and 25M to ETF. So selling x reasonable or y promising players doesn't matter the effect is the same,you get to upgrade TFs.
I do see your point where you are coming from. But the question about the allocation of talents of a cetain level has nothing to do with the price - Unless you decide that price defines the level of the player.

No matter how many managers there is, the number of produced players at a certain level is about the same relative amount to the created amount of players.

Final Whistle (join) 20 May 2020, 23:19
Loyals wrote:
FC Viitorul Constanta wrote:
Yes but the prices are based on demand and excepting specifit cases as the release of youth teams the demand is based on the number if active managers.
Also the price is relevant because there will be exceptions but the general rule will be more managers higher the prices. So its an auto adjusting benchmark if you will. A while ago the prommising could be found at 3M not they're 5-7M or more.
Reasonable were maybe 500-1,5M, now they're 2-4M.
But selling players for 5M gets you enough for STF, 10M to LTF and 25M to ETF. So selling x reasonable or y promising players doesn't matter the effect is the same,you get to upgrade TFs.
I do see your point where you are coming from. But the question about the allocation of talents of a cetain level has nothing to do with the price - Unless you decide that price defines the level of the player.

No matter how many managers there is, the number of produced players at a certain level is about the same relative amount to the created amount of players.
I also understand your point. But also consider we have 11 countries (unless I'm mistaking) and the max number of divisions that would need the super talents would be in the top 2 divisions( 1 first Division and 2 second division leagues) with 11 players.
So we have 11x(1+2)x16x11= 5808 players. So we can consider top 5.8k players as super youth for the time period they're in top rating.

The rest are just talented contenders or have a lot lower usability period they're hardly worth taking into account.

Now taking into account the distribution of players as described in the blog you shared:
"When a youth player is "born", he is given a hidden potential, which is a number between 1 and 30. The scout can give you a hint where this number lies, but his evaluation has a built-in uncertainty and the different levels in his description (Promising, Formidable, Enormous etc.) are not evenly spaced across the span between 1 and 30.

The potential is the basis of how well a player trains, and therefore it form the very foundation of his ability progression and career. "

Highest hidden potential based on a yearly promotion of 800k+ players:
Potential / #players / % of total
18 9432 1.16%
19 6950 0.85%
20 5059 0.62%
21 3593 0.44%
22 2584 0.32%
23 1843 0.23%
24 1296 0.16%
25 904 0.11%
26 640 0.08%
27 437 0.05%
28 302 0.04%
29 208 0.03%
30 136 0.02%

Now it depends of the player's max usefulness at top rating.
I see this was already discussed in a later blog post: https://www.virtualmanager.com/blog/917-rebalance-simulating-an-entire-player-population
Total ability sum/ #Of players at that level
550-599 7,060
600-649 3,430
650-699 1,530
700-749 1,360
750-799 520
800-849 360
850-899 260
900-949 30

So by this metric only players eventually reaching over 600 total ability sum could be considered super youth. And if I were to look at my team's evaluation that starts at Reasonable players trained mostly on LTF-PTF range.


Crackalackin (Leroy) 21 May 2020, 07:21
SuDoku AFC wrote:
If you've had two in that period then you are lucky.
I've been pllayiing this game nearly 7yrs and have only ever had one.
> and he was Very recent!
Many managers never have even one during their whole VM career smiley

In answer to your direct question, - I firmly believe that the "allocation" of these Superyouths is!
- totally random.
I’ve never had a good youth smiley

Loyals (VMEnhancer) 21 May 2020, 08:11
FC Viitorul Constanta wrote:
So by this metric only players eventually reaching over 600 total ability sum could be considered super youth. And if I were to look at my team's evaluation that starts at Reasonable players trained mostly on LTF-PTF range.
So players who get the T-mark is included. Not precise, but about there. Then I have had a couple of hundreds during the last 6 years I guess. At some point during these 6 years a T-marked player could sell for as little as 1C.

Newcastle U FC (Rolf Bergström) 21 May 2020, 23:00
Loyals wrote:
South Africa wrote:
I'd rather have an answer and response as to why training levels are so sporadic to be honest.
This one is "easy".

The hidden potential consitutes a specific training level. For the sake of argument I'll let the standard trianing for a 30/30 potential player be 200 xp for this explaination. (Ok - Honestly I dont know for a fact that the xp initially is the same each day, but it makes sense with all coming afterwards)

Negative factors:
- Injuries
- Energi (I dont know if there is a treshold for when the negative effect hits, like stadiums from 80%)
- Intensity of training session(Negative if relaxed)

Positive factors:
- Trainer (I've never seen anything disclosed about how big of an effect the trainer gives)
- Intensity of training session(Positive if intensive or more)(Intensity factor can be deducted)

Randomization factors:
- Team-factor (For each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.8 and 1.2)
- Player-factor (For each player at each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.8 and 1.2)
- Skill-factor (For each skill for each player at each session it is randomly decided at a value between 0.7 and 1.3)

So as an example. The player in question with a base of 200xp wil be subject to interval-training at "extreme" it would look something like this: 200xp x 120%(extreme) = 240xp
Split into 3 skills the base would be 80xp.

Acceleration: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)
Speed: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)
Stamina: 80 x (Team-factor) x (Player-factor) x (Skill-factor) x (Trainer effect)

The team factor is the same for each session for all players. The player factor is the same for all skills for each player at each session. The skill factor is different from each skill for each player at every session. (And the trainer, once again, I've never been finding the actual effect from a trainer)

If you're still uncertain about how it works - Let me know smiley
South Africa wrote:
Do you not think it's purely random? The amount of youths created is so high of course you will struggle to get a super youth.

Some teams get 2 in quick succession and some don't get one at all, hence it being random.
I've never been told explicitly that it's completely random, but it is my perception. I even came up with the algorithm for the current distribution based on the issues Sunnyvale was considering back then.

But for the distribution, see: https://www.virtualmanager.com/blog/895-rebalance-potential-distribution

Anyhow - It is important to distingise between "super youths" and just "talents". I have an idea that people might be underrating their good youths, and overrrating other peoples youths making it extra scewed in perception - I dont know this tho.

For myself, I believe I have had enough good talents - Most of them actually not picked by me, but found with scout and before that on free transfers.
Thank you very much Loyals for your reply to my comment. I do appreciate your time and insight but sadly you have entirely missed my point and I still await an answer from somebody (anyone!) who can actually answer my questions please,

I think all your points are about training optimisation for a player, and all your points are perfectly valid for that. But that is not at all what I was talking about.

Thank you, Rolf, Mr 0.0008%
(which is what we are meant to be addressing here, i.e. the distribution of newly discovered players who can train at the top-end and whether it is a) correct and b) fair that they only represent 0.0008% (or even less based on some comments!) of discovered 15 year olds for some people playing this game whereas seemingly much, much more frequently for other (lucky?) players.

Loyals (VMEnhancer) 22 May 2020, 00:37
Newcastle U FC wrote:
Thank you very much Loyals for your reply to my comment. I do appreciate your time and insight but sadly you have entirely missed my point and I still await an answer from somebody (anyone!) who can actually answer my questions please,

I think all your points are about training optimisation for a player, and all your points are perfectly valid for that. But that is not at all what I was talking about.

Thank you, Rolf, Mr 0.0008%
(which is what we are meant to be addressing here, i.e. the distribution of newly discovered players who can train at the top-end and whether it is a) correct and b) fair that they only represent 0.0008% (or even less based on some comments!) of discovered 15 year olds for some people playing this game whereas seemingly much, much more frequently for other (lucky?) players.
The comment you quoted was a quote and answer to South Africa who was interested in why trainings fluctuate.

I was discussing with FC VC when one would call it a "super youth" so we could make sure were talking about the same. Which is relevant to compare your .0008% to the actual distribution.

A completely random distribution is how I believe it works. You suggest that we put another factor into play and leverage the distribution towards players who have been getting fewer super youths?

Newcastle U FC (Rolf Bergström) 22 May 2020, 02:05
Certainly yes, thank you.
Something needs to be done for sure because what we currently have seems extremely lop-sided and inequitable. Fairness is never a bad thing, is it?
Rolf
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